U-M TRANSIT RELIABILITY
Magic Bus says four minutes.
History suggests eight.
Honest ETA compares live bus predictions with what actually happened at this route, stop, weekday, and hour - then shows the evidence behind any adjustment.
Live prediction feed
GPS-inferred arrivals
Confidence-aware corrections
NEXT ARRIVALS
When should you actually leave?
HELD-OUT COMPARISON
Does the adjustment actually help?
Chronological 80/20 split
No holdout leakage
How it works
From optimistic prediction to accountable estimate
Observe
Log published predictions and live vehicle positions continuously.
Measure
Infer real arrivals with GPS hysteresis and grade earlier predictions.
Explain
Apply transparent historical bias only when the sample supports it.
The same typed service powers this dashboard and five Model Context Protocol tools. Read the methodology.